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BT (LSE: BT.A) shares worry me, but I seem to be in a minority. Lately, the FTSE 100 telecoms giant has been doing very nicely. The BT share price is up 33% over the past 12 months and 70% over two years, and it’s still climbing. Should I stop fretting and join in the fun?
My unease goes back to the days when BT was a sprawling, directionless conglomerate, weighed down by a vast legacy pension scheme and a mountain of debt. It also made some odd strategic calls, such as trying to take on Sky for Premier League football rights, with mixed results.
Profits rising, revenues flat
As if that wasn’t enough, the nationwide rollout of fibre to the premises (FTTP) broadband, done by subsidiary Openreach, combines huge upfront spending and uncertain long-term rewards.
Even I can see things have improved. BT Sport is a fading memory. The pension scheme should be fully funded by 2030. In full-year 2025, BT reported a 12% rise in profit before tax to £1.3bn, although revenue slipped 2% to £20.4bn amid fierce competition and weaker handset sales.
I wouldn’t say the business itself is soaring. Openreach added 1.1m net FTTP customers in the first half of full-year 2026, taking total connected premises to 7.6m. However, smaller alt-net rivals are snapping at its heels. Openreach lost 242,000 broadband lines in the second quarter alone.
It also faces a newly merged rival in VodafoneThree. Meanwhile, BT’s largest shareholder, Indian billionaire Sunil Bharti Mittal, now has a seat on the board and is reportedly edgy about the direction of travel.
Chief executive Allison Kirkby has done well since taking the helm two years ago, building on the turnaround launched by predecessor Philip Jansen. That involved cutting costs, scaling back broadband investment, pushing through £3bn of cost savings and offloading non-core businesses.
Telecoms remains a brutal market. Operators have to spend heavily just to stand still, BT can still feel like a tired brand, and competition is intensifying, particularly from a revitalised Vodafone.
Decent value, solid yield
Yet the shares continue to perform and don’t look especially expensive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of just 10.1. The dividend yield has slipped to around 4.2% as the share price has risen. Future growth should be modest though, judging by the recent 2% increase in the interim payout. Oh, and net debt still tops £20bn.
Personally, I still wouldn’t buy the shares today. Much of the recent share price strength looks like a recovery from a poor run, helped by peak broadband spending. I don’t like the pace at which Openreach is losing customers, while the struggling UK economy is squeezing household budgets.
Broker forecasts don’t excite me too much either. They produce a median 12-month target price of 202.7p, up around 5% above current levels. Add in a forward yield of roughly 4.3%, and the total expected return comes to about 9.3%, which would turn £10,000 into £10,930 if everything goes as forecast.
For me, the longer-term picture still feels too uncertain, as BT continues to search for a clear identity in a tough market. I won’t consider buying the shares. I can see far more tempting income and growth prospects on the FTSE 100 today.
