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We’re only just over a week into 2026, and penny stock First Tin‘s (LSE:1SN) shares have already surged by 30%!
The young tin mining enterprise has been enjoying several structural tailwinds in recent months, sparking a lot of momentum that’s continued into 2026 as the firm’s flagship projects inch closer towards commercial production.
In just the last six months, the stock ‘s more than doubled. Yet according to one analyst, this could be just the tip of the iceberg, with another 50%+ surge right around the corner.
So is this a screaming buy for growth investors who don’t mind a bit of volatility? Let’s find out.
Explosive untapped potential
As a quick introduction, First Tin’s a development-stage mining company with two flagship projects in its portfolio that are close to completion: Taronga in Australia and Tellerhäuser in Germany.
Both projects hold exceptional promise. But Taronga’s a particularly exciting find. Why? Because it holds the fifth-largest undeveloped tin reserve worldwide. The project’s on track to begin commercial production in 2027 with an all-in sustaining cost of $15,843 per tonne.
Compared to current tin prices of $42,466 per tonne, that presents a 63% gross margin in a conflict-free OECD mining jurisdiction. And yet, this exceptional level of profitability could expand even further by the time mining actually begins, given the growing global tin supply deficit and rising demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables.
Even if tin prices remain stable, at an estimated output of 3,500-4,000 tonnes per year, that translates into a potential revenue stream of up to $169.8m (£125.5m).
With that in mind, it isn’t surprising to see the penny stock surging.
What could go wrong?
There’s no denying First Tin has exceptional room for growth. However, even with impressive projects nearing completion, there remains considerable investment risk. The Australian New South Wales government still needs to give final approvals for Taronga, which could face opposition from environmental groups and indigenous stakeholders. It’s a similar situation for Tellerhäuser.
Germany has a notoriously lengthy permit process that’s only made further complicated by the polymetallic composition of the deposit.
If the business is swept up in regulatory and legal challenges, production could be delayed by several years, sparking the need for further financing. In fact, Taronga has already been delayed by two years. And with no revenue stream the company could dilute shareholders to raise money if needed.
In the long-term, equity dilution may be a small price to pay. But if tin prices start falling due to overestimated demand, the unit economics of both projects would suffer, diminishing the long-term value generation.
Put simply, there’s a long road ahead for this business with many internal and external weak spots that undermine the group’s impressive growth potential.
This is definitely a penny stock worth watching. But with ample operational and financial uncertainty, I’m not ready to snap up any shares just yet, especially since other small-cap players in this space are already digging metals out of the ground.
