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The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price is a thing of wonder. It’s up 57% in the last year and 233% over two. The financial crisis is finally a fading memory. This is also a fantastic demonstration of how FTSE 100 stocks can deliver when they get their act together. It’s now the UK’s 12th-biggest company with a market cap of £65bn. But has it gone as far as it can?
Yesterday (10 February) Barclays reported full-year profit before tax of £9.1bn, up 12% year on year, narrowly beating analyst expectations. It also rewarded shareholders with plans for a further £1bn share buyback, on top of the £500m buyback launched last quarter.
FTSE 100 shining star
It’s looking to return more than £15bn to shareholders by 2028, primarily via buybacks. It’ll pay dividends too but the trailing yield has slipped to 1.8%, making it less attractive to income seekers.
Barclays announced ambitious new performance targets, aiming for a return on tangible equity above 14% by 2028, up from 11.3% in 2025, and targeting £2bn of cost savings by 2028. It’s not resting on its laurels.
All the big banks have had a good run of late. They’ve been boosted by higher interest rates, which have widened net interest margins. That’s the difference between what they pay savers and charge borrowers. However, that trend is likely to reverse as interest rates fall. But lower borrowing costs may partially compensate by reducing debt impairments, boosting mortgage lending and getting the economy going again.
Unlike UK-focused FTSE 100 rivals Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest, Barclays boasts exposure to the US, giving it a huge growth opportunity. This time round, the results were mixed. The weaker dollar hit profits, but this was partly offset by lower credit impairment charges and operating expenses. The US investment banking division performed well in volatile markets, but failed to cash in on the surge in M&A activity, in contrast to big Wall Street rivals.
Bank looks a little pricey
That may sound like a quibble, but Barclays needs to be firing on all cylinders to justify today’s much higher valuation, with the price-to-earnings ratio climbing past 17. Over the previous five years, it’s averaged just 7.4. Its price-to-book ratio is touching 0.9. Hardly expensive, but well above its 10-year average of 0.5. Success comes with a price tag, as ever.
There are wider threats too, such as the potential AI bubble, and the ever-present challenge of regulation, particularly in the US, where the authorities are famously tough.
Barclays is the most exciting of the big UK banks, but that brings extra layers of risk. It’s no longer a bargain, yet I still think it’s worth considering for the long term. Inevitably, there will be bumps, but that’s the price investors pay for the superior returns top FTSE 100 stocks like this can generate.
