Image source: BT Group plc
The dividend on BT Group (LSE:BT.A) shares has been steadily increasing since the pandemic. And in further good news for income investors, the group’s announced a 2% rise in this year’s interim payout.
But with plenty of FTSE 100 dividend stocks available, it can sometimes be difficult knowing which ones to choose. So are BT’s shares worth considering? Let’s take a closer look.
Good for income
Based on the 8.16p paid for the year ended 31 March 2025 (FY25), BT’s shares are currently (19 January) yielding 4.5%. In common with many businesses, it suspended its payout during the pandemic. But since then, it’s been steadily rising. In cash terms, its FY25 dividend was 6% higher than for FY22.
Positively, it’s announced a 2% increase in its FY26 interim payout. Shareholders will therefore receive 2.45p a share on 11 February. But what will its final dividend be? According to analysts, the total payout for the year is expected to be 7.67p, implying a cut in the final dividend of 9.3%.
| Financial year (31 March) | Share price (pence) | Dividend per share (pence) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 182.20 | 7.70 | 4.2 |
| 2023 | 145.80 | 7.70 | 5.3 |
| 2024 | 109.65 | 8.00 | 7.3 |
| 2025 | 165.85 | 8.16 | 4.9 |
| At 19.1.26 | 181.36 | 7.67 (forecast) | 4.2 |
If correct, this is likely to be poorly received by the market, and its share price is likely to fall sharply. But based on today’s price of 181.36p, it would still imply a yield higher than the FTSE 100. And it means someone buying 5,000 shares — at a cost of £9,068 (excluding any fees and stamp duty) — would receive £383.50 in dividends over the next 12 months.
Seeing into the future
Looking further ahead, analysts are expecting dividends of 7.96p (FY27), and 8.41p (FY28). On this basis, the forward (2028) yield is 4.6%. If these forecasts prove to be accurate, 5,000 shares bought today would generate passive income of £1,202 over the next three years. That’s a pretty good return for doing very little.
But as impressive as these figures might be, BT faces a number of challenges. Firstly, its debt’s on the high side. And with it continuing to have to spend heavily rolling out its 5G mobile and fibre-to-the-premises networks, the group could come under pressure to borrow more.
Of concern, analysts are forecasting a drop in revenue over the next three years. Also, earnings per share is predicted to fall to 17.6p by FY28. By comparison, it was 18.8p – 6.8% higher — in FY25.
Lack of traction
To be honest, it looks as though BT’s stuck in a bit of a rut. If its earnings do fall as anticipated then it could lead to a cut in its dividend. Although, perhaps perversely, this isn’t what the forecasts are currently showing.
However, my opinion isn’t supported by its recent share price movement. The stock’s now changing hands for 27% more than it was in January 2025. Perhaps the analysts are right. They have a 12-month price target of 211p, which suggests the stock could rise 16% over the course of 2026.
But I have my doubts. Although I’m impressed by its instantly recognisable brand, strong management team, and attractive dividend, I think there are better opportunities – to explore for both income and capital growth – elsewhere.
