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Greggs‘ (LSE:GRG) share price has fallen another 4% since the turn of the year. Nothing huge, but it compounds sizeable losses in 2025.
Personally, I’m not surprised. Greggs’ shares have traded phenomenally high for a company that makes baked goods. Remember, this stock was trading around 25 times forward earnings 18 months ago. I can get Nvidia cheaper than that today.
Expectations were clearly sky high, and delivery has been a lot weaker than investors expected.
Earnings expected to be flat
Greggs has flagged that earnings for fiscal 2026 are expected to be broadly flat. The problem is, that’s from a fairly low base. Sales growth should continue, supported by new shop openings and modest like-for-like gains, while the business maintains market share in a subdued food-to-go market.
However, margins may face pressure as new supply chain capacity comes online, though cost control remains strong and capital expenditure is set to fall after the recent investment peak.
Management expects underlying profits to match 2025 levels, with any unforeseen positives dependent on a recovery in consumer confidence. This message was broadcast in the Q4 trading update during which like-for-like sales only increased by 2.9%.
Analysts lower expectations
Analysts can get it vastly wrong. And quite frankly, as in any industry, some just aren’t great at their jobs. I often wonder if the less capable analysts are given Greggs to cover.
Anyway, the current share price target from the 14 analysts covering the stock is £19.52. That’s 19% above the current price and broadly suggests the stock’s good value at the current position.
However, it’s worth reminding ourselves of the position analysts took 18 months ago. On 21 September 2024, for example, the share price was £31.40 and the consensus target from the 12 analysts was £33.01.
Imagine if we’d have taken that as guaranteed. Many investors probably did. Even though this sausage roll maker was trading near 25 times earnings.
Valuation doesn’t scream buy
So where are we now? Well, it’s trading around 12.4 times forward earnings. However, if we account for net debt, which is now around 27% of the market-cap, that figure rises to almost 16 times.
Here’s the big question, do I want to pay 16 times earnings for a stock that’s barely growing earnings? Personally, no. The 4.2% dividend yield sweetens the opportunity but it’s just not enough to get me excited.
From what we know at the moment, I’d suggest the stock’s trading just above fair value. However, my understanding of fair value would change if operational performance improves.
For now though, I see this as a stock struggling against trends in healthy eating and weight loss. It might change, but that’s how I see it today.
In short, I believe that in an efficient market, Greggs’ share price would fall modestly or remain broadly in the same position over the next year. As such, £20,000 would still roughly be worth £20,000, especially when the dividend’s accounted for!
