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The FTSE 100 may have soared to new highs but that doesn’t mean all UK stocks look overvalued. Some smaller-caps have suffered heavy losses in the past six months.
In some cases, the losses are justified, but in others, they’re simply the result of weak market sentiment. During my research, I’ve uncovered three beaten-down shares forecast to double in price this year.
But the question is: are the forecasts accurate, or optimistic?
Future
Future‘s (LSE: FUTR) a tech firm that makes money from ads, affiliate links and subscriptions. In recent years, AI’s decimated its ad revenue model, dragging the shares down 72% in five years.
But that hasn’t deterred analysts. Out of eight rating the stock, six give it a Strong Buy, one a Buy and one a Hold. The most optimistic target is 1,875p, a 260% gain, and the most pessimistic, 733p — a 40% gain.
While that’s promising, whether it recovers depends on one of two things: either AI’s reeled in and ad markets stabilise, or the business implements an entirely new revenue strategy.
Encouragingly, the company converts a large chunk of its profits into free cash flow and carries manageable net debt, so the balance sheet looks solid. But whether it can turn its fortunes around remains to be seen.
Tullow Oil
Tullow Oil‘s an Africa‑focused oil producer with key assets in Ghana, Gabon and Côte d’Ivoire. The shares have been crushed to record lows after weak production updates, meaning any positive surprise on output, oil prices, or refinancing could move the price sharply.
If it hits targets and repairs its balance sheet, the shares are highly leveraged to better news. But debt of $1.2bn is a lot for a small company, so it risks needing to dilute shareholders if it doesn’t refinance successfully.
For me, the chance of a huge recovery here seems highly speculative — and comes with a lot of risk.
Essentra
Essentra‘s (LSE: ESNT) a specialist manufacturer of plastic and metal components that go into everyday industrial products. It might sound boring but it’s the kind of under-the radar business that has its fingers in many pies.
All six analysts I reviewed give it a Strong Buy, with even the most pessimistic forecast expecting a 61% gain. This optimism follows a restructuring that saw it exit non-core divisions, improving margins and cash flow.
As earnings improve, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29 is expected to fall to around 13. Debt looks manageable, with leverage forecast around 1.4x EBITDA and improving, and the dividend slowly growing from a low base.
Even if it doesn’t double this year, it looks like a solid company that’s worth considering for long-term compounding. Still, it faces cyclical demand risk from its exposure to volatile end-markets like automotive, packaging, and consumer goods.
My verdict
For now, I think Future is a bit too uncertain to call, and Tullow Oil risks going in either direction. Of the three, Essentra looks like a solid option to consider. Even if it doesn’t make a 100% gain this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets there in 2027.
The take away? Broker forecasts aren’t always based in reality. Always do a full assessment before diving into any stock — no matter the hype.
