With the SIP campaign a grand success, the mutual fund industry has started promoting SWPs. The sales pitch is this: Invest a lump sum in a hybrid fund like balanced advantage, dynamic asset allocation, aggressive hybrid and the like. As you keep systematically withdrawing, the remaining corpus will grow. Don’t worry about intermittent volatility; the “backtest” shows the corpus increases in value.
The problem is that if you get a bad sequence of returns after you invest the lump sum, the corpus will keep decreasing in value as you keep withdrawing, since the NAV keeps falling or stays stagnant. You will be under severe emotional strain. The counterargument is, stop withdrawing when the market falls or withdraw less.
This again makes no sense. My expenses do not stop or decrease if the market falls. I cannot vary withdrawals for regular income. And why would I start a SWP if I did not want a regular income? If I wanted occasional or discretionary cash flow, I could have redeemed manually (which is the right approach for volatile funds).
We did a rolling 15-year SWP analysis from April 1979 to Jan 2026 using (1) Sensex and (2) a hybrid index with 50% Sensex and 50% fixed interest of 8%. The monthly withdrawal rate was 4%/12 (annual rate is 4%) from a 25X corpus. Most people invest far less, but we want a situation where the SWP is always successful. That is, the money will last for 15Y periods.
In real life, depending on how you put in, take out, how long you run the SWP for, and future return sequences, the money can run out. When you redeem from an MF, you cannot simply redeem only the profits. The principal will also be redeemed each time, along with the capital gain (if any).
For each SWP run in the period mentioned above, these are the maximum falls in the corpus with respect to the initial amount invested.
Even for eventually “successful” SWPs, 20%-30%(+) falls are not uncommon for the hybrid funds. The key point to appreciate here is that when someone says a SWP worked, they are showing you the final result. The retiree has to be the one who lives through that journey.
Such journeys are full of pitfalls, as the above graph shows. Most people who are enticed by SWPs are those who wish to make up for a small corpus. They cannot afford the emotional or financial risks.
Also, keep in mind that we have used an imaginary hybrid index with fixed 8% debt returns and a 50% equity allocation, reset each month. In practice, the equity allocation in the hybrid funds recommended for SWPS can be higher (or lower) from time to time. It is not unreasonable to expect a bit higher drawdown than the ones shown above.
What should an investor do?
- Use only liquid funds, money market funds or arbitrage funds (if you appreciate risks) for SWPs. The NAV is significantly less volatile, and the drawdowns will be lower.
- Avoid SWPs in equity funds or hybrid funds (except perhaps arbitrage funds, which are also hybrid these days). Use these for occasional or discretionary expenses, or as medium- or high-risk components of your retirement buckets (if you can afford the risk). See: How to use safe withdrawal rates to gauge retirement corpus health
Do share this article with your friends using the buttons below.
Use our Robo-advisory Tool to create a complete financial plan! ⇐More than 3,000 investors and advisors use this! Use the discount code: robo25 for a 20% discount. Plan your retirement (early, normal, before, and after), as well as non-recurring financial goals (such as child education) and recurring financial goals (like holidays and appliance purchases). The tool would help anyone aged 18 to 80 plan for their retirement, as well as six other non-recurring financial goals and four recurring financial goals, with a detailed cash flow summary.
🔥You can also avail massive discounts on our courses and the freefincal investor circle! 🔥& join our community of 8000+ users!
Track your mutual funds and stock investments with this Google Sheet!
We also publish monthly equity mutual funds, debt and hybrid mutual funds, index funds, and ETF screeners, as well as momentum and low-volatility stock screeners.
You can follow our articles on Google News
We have over 1,000 videos on YouTube!
Join our WhatsApp Channel
Podcast: Let’s Get RICH With PATTU! Every single Indian CAN grow their wealth!
You can watch podcast episodes on the OfSpin Media Friends YouTube Channel.
🔥Now Watch Let’s Get Rich With Pattu தமிழில் (in Tamil)! 🔥
- Do you have a comment about the above article? Reach out to us on Twitter: @freefincal or @pattufreefincal
- Have a question? Subscribe to our newsletter using the form below.
- Hit ‘reply’ to any email from us! We do not offer personalised investment advice. We can write a detailed article without mentioning your name if you have a generic question.
Join 32,000+ readers and get free money management solutions delivered to your inbox! Subscribe to get posts via email! (Link takes you to our email sign-up form)
About The Author
Dr M. Pattabiraman (PhD) is the founder, managing editor and primary author of freefincal. He is an associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras. He has over 13 years of experience publishing news analysis, research and financial product development. Connect with him via Twitter(X), LinkedIn, or YouTube. Pattabiraman has co-authored three print books: (1) You can be rich too with goal-based investing (CNBC TV18) for DIY investors. (2) Gamechanger for young earners. (3) Chinchu Gets a Superpower! for kids. He has also written seven other free e-books on various money management topics. He is a patron and co-founder of “Fee-only India,” an organisation promoting unbiased, commission-free, AUM-independent investment advice.
Our flagship course! Learn to manage your portfolio like a pro to achieve your goals regardless of market conditions! ⇐ More than 3,500 investors and advisors are part of our exclusive community! Get clarity on how to plan for your goals and achieve the necessary corpus no matter the market condition!! Watch the first lecture for free! One-time payment! No recurring fees! Life-long access to videos! Reduce fear, uncertainty and doubt while investing! Learn how to plan for your goals before and after retirement with confidence.
Increase your income by getting people to pay for your skills! ⇐ More than 800 salaried employees, entrepreneurs and financial advisors are part of our exclusive community! Learn how to get people to pay for your skills! Whether you are a professional or small business owner seeking more clients through online visibility, or a salaried individual looking for a side income or passive income, we will show you how to achieve this by showcasing your skills and building a community that trusts and pays you. (watch 1st lecture for free). One-time payment! No recurring fees! Life-long access to videos!
Our book for kids: “Chinchu Gets a Superpower!” is now available!
Most investor problems can be traced to a lack of informed decision-making. We made bad decisions and money mistakes when we started earning and spent years undoing these mistakes. Why should our children go through the same pain? What is this book about? As parents, what would it be if we had to groom one ability in our children that is key not only to money management and investing but to any aspect of life? My answer: Sound Decision Making. So, in this book, we meet Chinchu, who is about to turn 10. The narrative revolves around what he wants for his birthday and how his parents plan for it, as well as teaching him several key ideas of decision-making and money management. What readers say!
Must-read book even for adults! This is something that every parent should teach their kids right from their young age. The importance of money management and decision making based on their wants and needs. Very nicely written in simple terms. – Arun.
Buy the book: Chinchu gets a superpower for your child!
How to profit from content writing: Our new ebook is for those interested in getting a side income via content writing. It is available at a 50% discount for Rs. 500 only!
Do you want to check if the market is overvalued or undervalued? Use our market valuation tool (it will work with any index!), or get the Tactical Buy/Sell timing tool!
We publish monthly mutual fund screeners and momentum, low-volatility stock screeners.
About freefincal & its content policy. Freefincal is a News Media organisation dedicated to providing original analysis, reports, reviews and insights on mutual funds, stocks, investing, retirement and personal finance developments. We do so without conflict of interest and bias. Follow us on Google News. Freefincal serves more than three million readers a year (5 million page views) with articles based only on factual information and detailed analysis by its authors. All statements made will be verified with credible and knowledgeable sources before publication. Freefincal does not publish paid articles, promotions, PR, satire or opinions without data. All opinions will be inferences backed by verifiable, reproducible evidence/data. Contact Information: To get in touch, please use our contact form. (Sponsored posts or paid collaborations will not be entertained.)
Connect with us on social media
Our publications
You Can Be Rich Too with Goal-Based Investing
Published by CNBC TV18, this book is designed to help you ask the right questions and find the correct answers. Additionally, it comes with nine online calculators, allowing you to create custom solutions tailored to your lifestyle. Get it now.
Gamechanger: Forget Startups, Join Corporate & Still Live the Rich Life You Want
This book is designed for young earners to get their basics right from the start! It will also help you travel to exotic places at a low cost! Get it or gift it to a young earner.
Your Ultimate Guide to Travel
This is an in-depth exploration of vacation planning, including finding affordable flights, budget accommodations, and practical travel tips. It also examines the benefits of travelling slowly, both financially and psychologically, with links to relevant web pages and guidance at every step. Get the PDF for Rs 300 (instant download)
