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Should I buy Aston Martin (LSE:AML) shares? This is a question I’ve asked myself a few times over the years.
Fortunately, the answer has always been no after digging into the investment case. I say ‘fortunately’ because the share price has literally fallen off a cliff since the James Bond carmaker went public in 2018.
We’re looking at a plunge of 98.5%!
The more recent performance hasn’t been any better, with the FTSE 250 stock down around 40% since the start of 2025. This means a £5,000 investment made back then is now worth just £3,000.
But with the share price trading near an all-time low, is it time I finally invested?
I love the brand
When I look at Aston Martin, I see a handful of things I like. The most obvious one is that it makes truly beautiful cars that get noticed.
I saw this recently when a green DB12 Volante motored past, turning almost every head as it went by. Not many cars do that, and I imagine the reaction would be even more pronounced in summer with the roof down.
Meanwhile, the iconic brand will forever be associated with James Bond, making it unique. As a big 007 fan myself, I’d think nothing of buying a couple of Astons if my numbers came up on the EuroMillions jackpot this week.
A higher-performance DB12 S was unveiled late last year, hot on the heels of the Vantage S and DBX S. The company has also started deliveries of its Valhalla hypercar, whose cost reportedly exceeds £1m after personalisation.
These new models and limited-edition supercars have the potential to increase the firm’s profitability moving forward, assuming they sell.
What about the stock?
If most of that sounded a bit like a gushing Top Gear piece, it’s because the cars are far more impressive than Aston Martin the company right now.
In 2025, it was battered by gale-force headwinds. These included US tariffs, weak demand in China, where it has been hit with a change in luxury taxation, and a global slowdown in the luxury car market. It has suffered production delays and repeatedly issued profit warnings.
Due to these setbacks, loss-making Aston Martin scrapped its goal of becoming free cash flow positive in the second half of 2025. And while it’s optimising the cost base, it still expects to report a full-year underlying operating loss of at least £110m.
Meanwhile, the balance sheet worries me here. Net debt increased 14% in Q3 to £1.38bn, and the financing costs are very high. For context, the firm’s market cap is only £635m!
Finally, the carmaker has pushed back plans for its first EVs, which has raised serious doubts about its long-term electrification strategy.
My move
The best companies are the ones that consistently set a target and overdeliver. For Aston Martin, it has been the opposite, with a track record of overpromising and under-delivering.
However, management says 2026 will be the year it expects “profitability and cash flow to materially improve”. This will be driven by approximately 500 Valhalla deliveries.
Personally, I need to see convincing evidence that the firm has turned a corner before I would consider investing. I see far better opportunities for my ISA elsewhere in the FTSE 250 today.
