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Shares in Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF) were down 13% on Thursday (8 January) as the FTSE 100 firm issued a weak trading update. And this is getting to be a familiar story for investors.
The company has been considering separating out Primark – its largest business. But results had better start improving before it gets around to doing that.
Weak sales
Primark accounts for almost half of the ABF’s total sales. So investors are justifiably interested in how the business is doing and a key measure of this is like-for-like sales growth.
The company is busy opening new stores and this naturally causes revenues to rise. But it can’t do this forever, so it also needs to find ways to increase sales in its existing outlets.
Like-for-like sales growth measures exactly this. During the Christmas period, however, this was negative for the business overall, 2.7% lower than it was the year before.
Management put this down to weak consumer confidence in mainland Europe, where the company struggled most. The 1.7% growth in the UK isn’t exactly spectacular, but neither is it disastrous in a market that’s undeniably challenging across the board.
I think the firm probably has a lot of scope to increase its store count significantly in the US. And this is a very promising market for Primark to expand into further.
In Europe, however, the problem is one that investors will be very familiar with. Since 2024, like-for-like sales have faltered, stalled, and then gone into decline – and that’s a problem.
Investing in Primark
Primark has a well-earned reputation for being a strong retailer. And its popularity with customers in the US means, as I mentioned, that it might well have some attractive growth prospects there.
That growth potential meant ABF shares got a boost in November when the firm announced that it was thinking of splitting out its Primark division. But the latest results create a problem here.
For that kind of move to work, investors need to be positive about the retailer’s prospects. And like-for-like sales going backwards isn’t likely to generate this feeling.
At the moment, investors can invest in Primark as part of ABF’s broader portfolio of assets. But these are generally less exciting than the value retailer.
With the stock falling, though, this might not matter. Investors might think the share price is low enough that Primark is worth the entire market value by itself.
Primark’s annual sales are around £10bn and ABF has a market value of £13bn. Given this, I think it might be worth considering as a potentially undervalued opportunity.
A buying opportunity?
Associated British Foods shares look like good value to me. The question, though, is whether they’re the best opportunity available right now.
That might come down to specific facts about what an investor is looking for. I think the stock might be a nice way to consider adding a value tilt to a growth-focused portfolio.
This isn’t the situation with my portfolio right now, though, so I’m going to keep this one on the bench. I’ll see how things develop with my other investments and adjust accordingly.
