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Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) stock has generated solid returns since joining the S&P 500 in December 2023. It has jumped around 50%, edging ahead of the index’s already strong performance.
However, Uber was flying even higher until recently, with its share price nudging above $100. Now it’s back down at $85, I think it’s worth considering as a buying opportunity. Here’s why.
Still growing strongly
A global leader in rideshare and delivery, Uber likely needs no introduction. It essentially facilitates the movement of people, food, parcels, and freight from point A to B.
Its strong brand powers a potent network effect (more riders attract more drivers, and vice versa).
Of course, Uber is hardly a new kid on the block nowadays, so investors may be wondering just how much growth is left in the tank here.
Well, the firm ended Q3 with 189m monthly active users on its platform, which was 17% more than the year before. And it carried out a mind-boggling 3.5bn trips globally over that 13-week period (up 4%).
Meanwhile, revenue growth clocked in at 20% ($13.5bn), while adjusted EBITDA grew 33% to $2.3bn. Free cash flow was a healthy $2.2bn.
For Q4, which Uber will report in early February, management anticipates gross bookings growth of 17%-21%, as well as adjusted EBITDA growth of 31%-36%.
Low penetration rates
These numbers tell us that Uber’s growth engine is humming along nicely. And management sees that continuing for the next couple of years (at least), with annualised bookings growth in the mid-to-high teens percentage range, along with 35%-40% adjusted EBITDA growth.
Another thing worth noting is that the number of adults using Uber in its top 10 countries is around 15%, according to management. In the other 60+ countries, the penetration rate is still often much lower.
In other words, Uber still has a long runway of potential growth left across most of its markets, including mature ones. I can easily imagine a future where it captures 20%, say, or even higher.
We see profitability growing faster than our top line for years to come.
Uber CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah
Robotaxi risk or opportunity?
The main long-term threat hanging over Uber is robotaxis from Tesla and Google’s Waymo. This could result in consumers booking autonomous vehicle (AV) rides directly on these firms’ apps rather than Uber’s. This risk shouldn’t be ignored.
However, Tesla and Waymo aren’t the only AV firms around. Far from it. The UK’s Wayve has a similar AI-based approach to Tesla, while WeRide has already launched robotaxis with Uber in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Dubai.
By the end of 2026, there will be at least 10 cities where robotaxis can be booked on Uber, and it’s working with 20+ AV partners. These include China’s Baidu and Pony.ai, as well as Waymo in three US cities.
My view is that most robotaxi rides will eventually be booked on Uber, where massive customer demand already exists.
Not overvalued
I already have a chunky Uber position that I built up last year. So I’m not looking to buy more shares (at least not yet).
But at $85, the stock’s forward price-to-earnings multiple for 2027 is around 19. At this price, I see plenty of value, and reckon it deserves a place on investors’ radar.
