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Despite a very solid 2025, the Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) share price has just come off its highs. And some investors are worrying that a full-blown crash might be on the cards for 2026?
I think a number of the risks might be less significant than some investors seem to believe. But there are definitely some threats and challenges it’s getting very hard to ignore.
Growth potential
One big question with Nvidia is how long can it maintain its extraordinarily impressive revenue growth? After all, sales have more than doubled in 2025 after increasing 125% in 2024.
With the stock trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 23, there’s clearly future growth priced in. But another 100% increase would require $130bn in additional revenues.
That’s a lot, but it’s important to keep this in context. Even if Nvidia does double its sales again in 2026, its revenues will still be below what Microsoft managed in 2025.
I think that should be a real source of optimism for the firm. The numbers are big and the growth’s impressive, but the company isn’t in uncharted territory – at least, not yet.
Vendor financing
Sceptical investors have also been focusing on the structure of some of Nvidia’s deals. In some cases, sales have been accompanied by equity investments in customers.
The concern here is partly that the buyers can’t immediately finance these deals themselves. But this is true in a number of industries – and there’s nothing inherently disreputable about it.
Heavy equipment manufacturers in farming and construction often help customers finance expensive purchases. And while this creates risk, it’s not really controversial.
The risk might be bigger with Nvidia’s customers and this is worth looking at carefully. But the structure of the deals doesn’t mean there’s an immediate problem for the firm.
Product cycle
A key reason for Nvidia’s recent success has been its ability to develop new products at speed. The first Blackwell chips shipped in late 2024 and new Vera Rubin ones are coming in 2026.
This is great from the perspective of generating recurring revenues from customers. But it gives the likes of Alphabet and Amazon an incentive to develop their own products.
These are some of Nvidia’s biggest customers and the threat of them turning into competitors is one that investors looking at the stock should take very seriously.
I think this could be the biggest risk with the stock. If a major cloud provider cuts its spending on GPUs – and there are signs this might happen – the share price could crash.
2026 crash?
Investors have been wondering how much longer Nvidia’s spectacular growth can continue for some time now. And while the firm’s since done very well, risks are starting to emerge.
The biggest of these, in my view, is the possibility of customers developing their own chips. If the stock’s going to crash in 2026, I think this’ll be the reason why.
I’m not willing to bet against the Nvidia share price in 2026. But from a buying perspective, I’m concentrating on other artificial intelligence opportunities.
