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There’s no way around it, the Aston Martin (LSE: AML) share price has been a disaster! Down 40% in the past 12 months, it’s crashed a whopping 98.6% since that fateful market launch in 2018. It hasn’t been the growth stock that early investors hoped for.
Still, every time the luxury car maker seemed like it was on its last, it found the cash to keep it going. Someone seems to think the future’s rosy — though how far that extends beyond billionaire investor Lawrence Stroll, who took a big stake in 2020, remains to be seen.
So at 62.7p, at the time of writing, might the shares even become the Rolls-Royce of 2026?
What now?
Floating when it did — just ahead of the pandemic and the years of economic devastation that followed — Aston Martin could hardly have timed things worse. When CEO Adrian Hallmark took control in September 2024, he had a formidable task ahead of him.
In that year, Aston Martin posted a loss before tax of £289m. And that was even worse than the £240m loss the year before. So what did the new boss plan to change?
He said: “After a period of intense product launches, coupled with industry-wide and company challenges, our focus now shifts to operational execution and delivering financial sustainability.”
So away from the glitz and glamour, and sort the finances out. Well, maybe. But things could still turn on the new Vanquish and future hybrid models.
The current state
Efforts to control capital expenditure and reduce losses have run into further external hurdles. With a Q3 update on 10 December, the CEO spoke of “significant macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the sustained impact of US tariffs and weak demand in China.“
The year to date has seen a loss before tax of £253m, higher again than the same period last year. And net debt’s up to £1.38bn, from £1.22bn a year ago.
At least Stroll is still upbeat, telling us: “My confidence in the long-term prospects for this iconic British brand and commitment to the company remains unwavering.”
And that really might be what the company needs. Having a major shareholder with strong confidence in the longer term must surely boost the chances of making it through to profit.
What next?
Talking of profit, there’s none expected just yet — not even by 2027. But a forecast loss per share of 4.4p that year is very small, way below the 38.9p recorded in 2024. It’s only a whisker away from breaking even.
It wouldn’t take much of a broker upgrade to turn it into a modest profit outlook. And it opens the door to a possible pivot point in the year ahead. We might not need to wait for actual profit. All it might take is for a positive earnings forecast to appear on analysts’ radars.
If that happens, it could finally kick off a rerating for Aston Martin shares. Growth stock investors might do well to consider buying before then — but the risk is still too great for me.
