Image source: Sam Robson, The Motley Fool UK
This year has seen electric vehicle producer NIO (NYSE: NIO) both delight and disappoint shareholders. The delight has come from some periods of NIO stock surging: by early October, it was up over 80% since the start of the year.
Since then, though, the share price movement has been more disappointing, falling 35%.
Still, that leaves NIO stock 18% up so far this year. Not only has the share price improved overall this year – so have sales.
Could now be the time for me to tuck some NIO stock into my portfolio, hoping for long-term gain?
A changing market
The sales figures have been impressive in several ways.
In the most recent quarter, NIO’s sales volumes grew 41% year on year. I regard that as an impressive number in itself.
But what is also impressive to me is that the quarterly sales number was over 87,000 vehicles. Sure, that falls well short of what rivals like Tesla and BYD achieve. But it is still a sizeable number.
This indicates that NIO is not just some dinky start-up with ambitious plans. It is a large company operating at scale and already selling thousands of cars each week.
The electric vehicle market has been evolving, with competition getting more pronounced. Tesla’s performance this year has been mixed. By contrast, NIO is moving forward at speed, albeit from a lower base.
What’s holding me back from investing
There have been other pieces of promising news this year as well.
For example, that jump in NIO stock over the summer followed news that it planned to broaden its product range, opening up new market segments. That could be good for sales volumes and revenues.
But it is not revenues that have been holding me back from buying some NIO stock for my portfolio. After all, they are already substantial and rising handily.
What has been keeping me from investing so far is profits – or, rather, the lack of them. NIO has been consistently loss-making so far.
The company’s net loss in its most recent quarter was markedly smaller than in the same quarter last year – but it still came in at around £365m.
Keeping a close eye on things
Could that change?
Certainly. After all, making cars is capital-intensive but can also be lucrative.
Setting up operations can mean spending lots of cash. But hopefully once volumes get big enough, economies of scale can help turn a loss into a profit.
That is what happened with Tesla, for example.
It could yet happen with NIO too. I think the company has a lot going for it, as its growing sales volumes demonstrate. The brand is gaining traction with some car buyers, it has pricing power thanks to its premium positioning and higher volumes could help wring out manufacturing efficiencies.
However, the ongoing losses concern me as a potential investor. NIO has not yet proven its business model can be profitable.
So, although I will keep a close eye on it, I will not be buying any NIO stock just yet.
