Image source: Getty Images
Games Workshop (LSE:GAW) is one of the top-performing FTSE 100 shares of 2025. Despite not being an artificial intelligence (AI) company, the stock’s up 46% since the start of January.
The rising share price has been driven by the firm’s ability to keep generating strong sales growth in a tough environment. And that increase isn’t even the full story…
Dividends
That 46% rise means a £5,000 investment from the start of the year now has a market value of just over £7,430. But the company has also returned £5.40 in dividends per share in 2025.
Based on the share price at the start of January, that’s an additional return of just over 4%. In the context of a £5,000 investment, that’s slightly more than £210. In other words, investors have had a total return of just over 50% this year. Most of it has come from the share price going up, but the firm has also returned cash directly to investors.
Can this continue in 2026? I own the stock and while I’m not expecting a similar result next year, I’m expecting it to do better than the FTSE 100 average.
Valuation
One reason the price has gone up is to do with valuation, rather than the underlying business making more money. At the start of the year, it traded at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.
The shares now trade at a P/E multiple of 33. By itself, that change implies a 33% increase in the share price and it reflects investor expectations rather than the company itself.
This is one of the reasons I’m not expecting similar gains in 2026. Another 33% increase in the P/E ratio would mean the stock trading at a multiple of 44, which would be very high.
The stock hasn’t traded at that level in the last five years. That’s not to say it can’t do that in the future, but I think it’s unwise to base an investment on the expectation that it will.
Growth
If I’m right, then future share price increases are going to have to come from the underlying business. And Games Workshop has been doing well. In its most recent update, the firm reported a 15% increase in core sales and a 6% increase in pre-tax profits. In the context of the last year, I think that’s quite impressive.
The biggest risks to Games Workshop include tariffs, weak consumer spending, and inflation above target rates. And pretty much all of these have been a feature of the last 12 months.
These are ongoing challenges for the business. But if trading conditions start to improve, then growth rates could continue to rise from their already impressive levels.
Buy?
Games Workshop’s been a brilliant business for investors. Growing sales while returning cash to shareholders is impressive – doing it in a year like this one is outstanding.
As a result though, the investment equation’s changed a bit. I thought it looked a great opportunity at a P/E ratio of 25, but I’m less convinced at 33.
I don’t think it’s overvalued, necessarily, but it’s not my top FTSE 100 stock with 2026 on the horizon. So I’m sticking with the shares I have and looking at other opportunities.
