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Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) shares have climbed 60% in 2025. And they’re up more than 200% over five years. That’s a cracking performance. And forecasts for the next few years are upbeat.
I see reasons why City experts have a firm Buy consensus on Lloyds shares at the moment. But I now want to know what AI large language models have to say about the future.
Asking AI
I asked ChatGPT: “Where will Lloyds shares be this time next year?” And the answer definitely gives me some insight into the usefulness of AI for investors.
ChatGPT offered me its ‘reasoned estimate.’ Though, of course, it’s more repackaging what others have said than doing any actual reasoning.
It suggested “a reasonable ballpark for the share price in 12 months might be 90 to 100p, assuming things go moderately well (no major shocks, decent earnings, modest growth)“.
It then suggested “if there’s a negative surprise (e.g., large new loss provisions or weaker UK economy), it could fall below 75p“, but that “if things go very well it might approach or slightly exceed 105p“.
ChatGPT offered to dig deeper, but that’s all I really want for now.
Fact check
It’s not far off analyst forecasts I can find myself, which range from 53p to 110p — but with the commentary thrown in.
The average of 93p is nicely in the AI ballpark of 90-100p. The main difference is that lowball 53p pick. But it’s one of the oldest out there, and it might just be overdue for an update.
It’s good that ChatGPT picked up on sources that highlighted the same two risks I’ve been watching. The recent car loan ruling was nowhere near as bad as it could have been. But the final cost is still unknown, and it could weigh on Lloyds shares until it’s all settled.
I also think the economy is a risk even if it goes well. That’s because we could see lower interest rates eating into Lloyds’ lending margins.
Valuation
How might all this affect the Lloyds valuation by the end of 2026?
If AI forecasts are right, the 90-100p mid-range would put the Lloyds 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio somewhere between 9.5 and 10.6. The conservative 75p low-end would put the P/E at only 8. And that top-end 105p would mean a potential multiple of 11.2.
Does that seem about right to me? Yes, I think it sounds like attractive — if not screaming cheap — value.
How to use AI
AI models can’t tell us whether we should buy or sell. And they really can’t do any actual reasoning for themselves – so don’t be fooled! But they can search and organise data a lot quicker than I can. And from what I’m seeing, I have a reasonable hope of useful summarising.
That might not sound like much of a time saver if we then have to check everything ChatGPT has to say — and we certainly do need to check!
But my plan is to used AI to do a quick first pass when I’m considering investment alternatives, to get a market overview. That should free up time to check out the resulting shortlist more carefully.
And Lloyds? It’s still a Hold for me, with a top-up still a possibility.
