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2025’s been a stellar year for the FTSE 100. The index as a whole has almost doubled its historical average return since January, climbing 15.8%. Yet this double-digit gain pales in comparison to some of its constituents. For example, Endeavour Mining‘s (LSE:EDV) up roughly 90% over the same period, allowing shareholders to almost double their investment!
At a market-cap of £6.9bn, Endeavour’s still among some of the smallest firms in the UK’s flagship index. But that also signals plenty of upward potential. So could its explosive performance so far be just the tip of the iceberg?
The bull case
There are a lot of reasons behind Endeavour’s recent outperformance, but one of the leading catalysts for growth has been gold prices.
As a quick reminder, the business specialises in the exploration, development, and operation of gold mines focused primarily in West Africa. In fact, it’s one of the largest gold producers in the region, on track to output up to 1.26 million ounces by the end of the year. And if management’s estimates are correct, the average production cost per ounce will be no more than $1,350.
That’s one of the lowest production costs in the industry. Combining this with a high double-digit production ramp-up and similarly accelerating gold prices, Endeavour’s operating cash flows have skyrocketed by 153% to $888m over the first half of 2025. And when looking at the bottom line, its pushed net profits from a loss of $80m last year to a juicy $444m gain during the same current-year period.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising to see investors get excited. And with more growth projects like Assafou (its Côte d’Ivoire potential flagship asset) on the horizon, backed by a solid balance sheet with healthy debt levels, it certainly seems like this FTSE 100 stock has a promising future.
Risk versus reward
There’s a lot to like about this business. But like all companies, it isn’t without its weak spots. And investors must consider both the risks as well as the rewards before committing any capital.
With gold prices near an all-time high of around $3,650, Endeavours’ profit margins are sitting very comfortably at the moment, considering its predicted production costs. But that could quickly change if gold prices decide to reverse – a cyclical risk that’s not going away.
It’s also important to recognise where Endeavour does its business. West Africa’s not the most stable of political or regulatory regions. And sudden regime changes or increased criminal activity could disrupt operations as seen in the past with gold thefts and convoy attacks. While such extreme events aren’t frequent, even the mere threat of them creates a more challenging environment to operate in.
The bottom line
Endeavour Mining shares are currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.5. But when looking at the earnings multiple on a forward basis, this drops to just 8. That indicates the FTSE 100 stock’s already seeing a lot of its expected future growth priced in.
Therefore, any misses in full-year targets could spark notable volatility. Paired with the ongoing operational risks, this means Endeavour Mining shares present a classic high-risk/high-reward investment. That’s not something I’m keen to add to my portfolio, but I can’t deny there’s a potentially interesting opportunity to think about here for investors with high risk tolerance.
