American Airlines (AAL Stock) entered the busy summer travel season with clear momentum. The carrier posted record Q2 2025 revenues of $14.4 billion, a 5% jump in international passenger unit revenue, with especially strong demand across the Atlantic. Its operating margin climbed to 8%, while earnings per share of $0.95 beat Wall Street expectations. AAL is also giving a strong net-zero push with significant investment in SAF.
Let’s deep dive into its revenue and its sustainability goals below.
American Airlines’ Passenger Growth Gives Earnings a Lift
The earnings release showed that premium cabins led the charge, with families, leisure travelers, and business flyers paying up for long-haul comfort. The airline also leaned into its AAdvantage loyalty program, which grew 7% in 2025. Upticks in co-branded credit card use and new perks like instant upgrades helped drive repeat bookings.
Together, these gains signaled more than just post-pandemic recovery—they showed targeted growth in high-margin categories.
Holiday Travel Tailwinds
Heading into the year-end holidays, American is adding capacity both at home and abroad. Routes to resilient leisure destinations are expanding, while premium travel remains a strong revenue engine. The airline is betting that higher engagement and a growing loyalty base will keep its planes full during the holiday surge.
Yet, investors are cautious. AAL shares trade at $13.39, nearly 28% below their 2025 peak of $18.66. AAL stock has been volatile, with 22 swings of more than 5% this year alone. Analysts maintain a neutral outlook, with a median 12-month price target of $13.55, suggesting limited upside unless cost pressures ease.
Q3 Forecast: Clear Skies or Turbulence Ahead?
Despite Q2 strength, management offered a more sober Q3 forecast. The company expects a loss per share between $0.10 and $0.60, missing analyst profit estimates. That guidance reflects the industry’s most stubborn challenges:
- Fuel volatility – oil prices are holding around $86 per barrel.
- Labor pressures – wage hikes, including a 10% pilot raise, are cutting into margins.
- Tariff and macro risks – global trade uncertainties remain a drag.
Margins for Q3 are projected between -1% and +2%. At the same time, costs per available seat mile may climb another 2.5–4.5% year-on-year. Pilot shortages and weather disruptions have also played their part, denting operational efficiency.
Still, the company is leaning on its $12 billion liquidity buffer to manage volatility. With the industry facing similar headwinds, investors will watch closely to see how well the airline balances growth with cost control.
A Different Flight Path: American Airlines 2050 Net Zero Goals
While financials dominate headlines, American Airlines is also pushing ahead on climate commitments. Aviation remains one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize, but the carrier has tied its long-term competitiveness to a net-zero emissions goal by 2050. Intermediate targets for 2030 and 2035 add pressure to deliver progress sooner.
Decarbonizing air travel requires public-private collaboration, innovation, and policy support. However, the company is investing heavily in efficiency, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and next-generation aircraft within its operations.
Capital Investments with Climate Benefits
In 2024, roughly 55% of American’s capital spending supported both profitability and decarbonization. That included billions invested in new aircraft, fuel-saving initiatives, and fleet modernization. Although deliveries slowed in 2024 due to supply chain delays, the company expects to take delivery of more efficient aircraft in 2025.
Next-generation aircraft is the key to the airline’s climate playbook.
- It became the largest airline to sign a conditional purchase agreement for 100 ZeroAvia hydrogen-electric engines. They can power regional jets with zero emissions beyond water vapor.
- The company aims to induct hydrogen-powered aircraft by 2032 or earlier.
Betting Big on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
SAF is widely regarded as the most critical near-term lever for reducing aviation’s carbon footprint. Compared to conventional jet fuel, SAF can cut life-cycle emissions by up to 85%. But supply remains limited, and high costs are slowing adoption.
It aims to replace 10% of its jet fuel use with SAF by 2030, which would avoid about 3.5 million metric tons of CO2. In 2024, the airline used 2.9 million gallons of SAF, a modest 9.7% increase from 2023 but still under 0.1% of total fuel use.
It has signed offtake deals to scale SAF. They include
- Up to 10 million gallons from Valero by mid-2026.
- Agreement with Infinium, an e-fuels producer, with deliveries expected as early as 2027.
The company also became a founding member of the SAF Coalition, which lobbies for federal incentives to make SAF cost-competitive.
American applies strict sourcing principles to its SAF purchases, requiring at least a 50% life-cycle emissions reduction, full feedstock impact assessments, and sustainability certifications.
Airspace Efficiency
Beyond fuel, American is working with policymakers to modernize airspace management. Better flight planning and optimized routing reduce emissions while boosting safety and on-time performance.
In 2024, the airline rolled out a flight planning optimization tool and equipped its A321 fleet with ADS-B In technology, allowing pilots to adjust routes in real-time for efficiency. These upgrades enhance both operational reliability and sustainability.
Carbon Markets as a Backstop
American Airlines also participates in voluntary carbon markets to neutralize residual emissions. The company is exploring offsets and removals as complementary tools to in-sector solutions.
Last year, it onboarded new digital tools to help corporate customers meet their own decarbonization goals, signaling growing demand for carbon-aligned travel options.
Momentum vs. Risk: Can AAL Keep Flying High?
For shareholders, AAL stock presents a mix of opportunity and risk. The airline is benefiting from record revenues, stronger loyalty engagement, and solid demand for premium travel. Yet, rising costs, $38 billion in debt, and the heavy price of climate transition investments are weighing on its outlook.
With a price-to-sales ratio of 0.16 compared to the industry average of 0.69, AAL appears undervalued. Still, challenges like wage pressures and fuel volatility temper bullish sentiment. Most analysts recommend patience, noting that future gains will hinge on execution and broader market conditions.
Looking ahead, American Airlines has shown it can soar when demand is strong, but turbulence is likely in 2025. The airline is balancing earnings volatility with billions committed to its net-zero pathway. Its ability to manage profitability while pushing forward on decarbonization will shape its role as both a leading U.S. carrier and a case study in how aviation adapts to market and climate pressures.
